Skill UI

A specialized tool designed to explore uncertain futures by mapping the entire possibility space. Instead of relying on a single prediction, the Oracle runs structured multi-branch scenario analyses (including Best, Worst, Wild Card, and Second-Order effects). It is ideal for stress-testing major decisions, performing contingency planning, and analyzing potential consequences when facing strategic forks or high-stakes uncertainty.

This guide helps researchers determine if their core contribution is focused on measuring or refining a specific risk or uncertainty primitive (e.g., ambiguity attitudes, VSL, probability weighting). It provides a framework to assess scope fit and distinguish between behavioral anomalies, methodological findings, and foundational risk theory, ensuring the paper is positioned correctly for high-tier academic journals like JRU.

This guide details best practices for creating high-impact tables and figures for psychological science manuscripts, adhering to APA 7th edition guidelines. It emphasizes showing effect sizes, uncertainty (like confidence intervals), and embedding visuals directly within the main text near their first discussion, moving beyond traditional end-of-document placement. It covers data visualization principles and manuscript triage.

A strategic framework for making decisions when facing extreme uncertainty and unclear outcomes. Effectuation instructs users to start with available means (skills, assets, network) and define an affordable loss limit. Progress is driven by taking small, controlled actions to gain real commitments and information, allowing the ultimate goal to emerge naturally.

This methodology provides a comprehensive framework for estimating buffered numbers—such as capacity limits, timeframes, or budgets—when making commitments under uncertainty. It guides users to calculate a buffer based on both residual estimation error and the potential cost of failure (breach cost), ensuring resilience against costly underestimation in critical systems or plans.