Skill UI

A comprehensive tool designed for authors targeting specialized pure theory journals, such as the Journal of Economic Theory (JET). It helps assess whether a manuscript's core contribution is general, theoretical, and novel, rather than being limited to a specific application or empirical dataset. Use it to re-frame your work, check for conceptual fit, and anticipate potential desk-rejection risks based on the journal's rigorous standards for theorems, proofs, and generality.

A rigorous framework for making evidence-based estimates and forecasts when precise data is unavailable. It guides users to anchor predictions on base rates, articulate uncertainty using confidence intervals, and systematically update beliefs using likelihood ratios (prior to posterior) as new evidence arrives. Ideal for risk sizing, project timelines, and strategic decision-making.

This technique forces rigorous critical evaluation by simulating the construction of the strongest, most faithful opposing argument (the 'steel man'). Instead of accepting weak counterarguments or falling into confirmation bias, the process generates a robust adversarial case. It is essential for high-stakes decision reviews, architectural debates, and major proposal vetting, ensuring that the final decision is based on a comprehensive understanding of all risks and conditions for change.

This framework, known as Via Negativa, guides iterative improvement by prioritizing removal and simplification over adding new features. It mandates that before introducing any new complexity, dependency, or layer, one must exhaust all possibilities of eliminating redundant, harmful, or nonessential elements. It emphasizes evidence-based decision-making and risk assessment, ensuring that new additions are truly necessary after thorough subtraction passes.