技能 效率工具 有限理性决策法

有限理性决策法

v20260804
thinking-bounded-rationality
当资源(时间、上下文、工具)有限,但搜索空间巨大时,本技能指导用户如何做出高效决策。核心原则是首先设定一个明确的“足够好”的标准(渴望水平)。一旦达到该标准,应立即选择该选项,避免陷入过度分析和无限循环的搜索陷阱。
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概览

Bounded Rationality

Under finite tool, context, and time budgets, stop at the first option that meets a predeclared aspiration level. Optimize only when the good-to-best gap is worth the remaining budget.

When to Use

  • Search or option comparison has no natural endpoint and could consume the turn budget.
  • Multiple options would clear the requirement and further comparison has diminishing returns.
  • The decision is reversible or low-stakes relative to more search.
  • You are gathering context beyond what the decision needs to ship.

When NOT to Use

  • Irreversible or high-stakes choices (data loss, security, migrations, public commitments) where the good-to-best gap is material.
  • Correctness gates: tests, security checks, and "did the fix work?" need the right answer, not a sufficient-looking one.
  • One cheap lookup would settle the fact — do it; do not satisfice past it.
  • The aspiration level cannot be stated — clarify the requirement first.

Procedure

  1. State decision and budget. Name the choice, residual tool/context/time budget, and reversibility.
  2. Set aspiration before searching. Write concrete pass/fail criteria for "good enough." Do not evaluate until the threshold is explicit.
  3. Search sequentially. Score options in encounter order against the threshold only. Skip full matrices unless step 1 marked high-stakes/irreversible.
  4. Stop at first adequate. When an option clears every criterion, select it immediately.
  5. Handle search failure without moving the goalposts. If nothing clears after the pre-set cap, preserve the threshold and report no adequate option. Relax only a criterion predeclared as non-load-bearing, record the relaxation, and resume within a new cap; never raise the bar after failure.
  6. Commit. Record choice and residual uncertainty; spend remaining budget on execution, not re-ranking.

Stop condition: First option meets the predeclared aspiration level, or the search cap is exhausted with none adequate.

Output

Decision: <choice>
Aspiration: <pass/fail criteria>
Search: evaluated N; stopped at first adequate | cap exhausted
Selected: <option or none>
Residual risk: <what further search might change>
Next spend: <execution step>

Verification

  • Falsify if you kept comparing after an option cleared the threshold, or invented the threshold after seeing winners.
  • Falsify if a correctness gate or irreversible decision was treated as satisficeable.
  • Over-application guard: if one cheap check settles a fact, look it up — do not invoke this skill.
信息
Category 效率工具
Name thinking-bounded-rationality
版本 v20260804
大小 2.75KB
更新时间 2026-08-06
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